The global economy is bouncing back in terms of confidence, orders, employment and spending, according to the latest ACCA and IMA Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS).

The survey of 1,000 senior accountants and finance professional across the world recorded the biggest jump in economic confidence this quarter in the 12 years it has been running. The balance of those more optimistic minus those less optimistic increased by 26 points in this survey.

The GECS is consistent with the view that the global economy stands a good chance of reaching its pre-pandemic level of activity later this year.

The results for Africa show a region reporting improved levels of economic confidence, but at more modest levels than other regions such as South Asia and Asia-Pacific which show strong results for confidence. North America has reported the strongest results, with an economy likely to achieve growth of more than 6% in 2021. Orders grew globally, apart from in Africa, which was the only region to see a fall in the orders index, although other activity indicators of employment and capital spending both rose.

Thomas Isibor, head of ACCA Nigeria, comments: ‘Different levels of economic prospects in the largely optimistic global picture are attributed to three factors that heavily influence the economy – the rate of vaccinations, the amount of government fiscal stimulus and savings banked by individuals during restrictions and lockdowns.’

‘The GECS results for Africa show that previous experience of pandemics and a relatively young population prevented dramatic falls in output last year. But negligible progress on vaccination plus a continued absence of foreign tourists, suggests there will be no strong recovery in many countries across the continent. Commodity exporters will fare better as prices and demand have rebounded.’

Michael Taylor, chief economist at ACCA, said of the global picture: ‘This survey paints a much brighter picture with confidence jumping by the most in the history of the survey. The approval and deployment of several effective vaccines has dramatically improved the prospects of an end to the Covid crisis. A very large US fiscal stimulus has also boosted global economic prospects this year.

‘The global orders index also increased in the Q1 survey and is consistent with further recovery in the global economy into the second half of 2021. We now expect global economic activity to return to its pre-Covid level from Q4 2019, later this year.’

The survey also reported some more mixed results. The ‘fear’ indices, which track concern about customers and suppliers going out of business, are still above long-term averages, reflecting continued uncertainty.

And near-term cost concerns increased, to a balance of 33 in Q1 from 24 in the previous survey, reflecting higher commodity prices and other costs, as the global economy recovers. But cost concerns are still below their long-run average.

The prospect of a strong economic rebound has also raised questions about the possibility of sustained increases in inflation, with two-thirds of global respondents saying they expect it to rise within five years.

However, the report concludes that the effect of the recessions of 2020 will keep a lid on inflation for the next year in most countries, with an expected steady rise in the next three to five years. In the USA, predicted strong economic growth this year, could lead to inflation much quicker