The World Bank has warned that a prolonged surge in oil prices triggered by escalating conflict in the Middle East could worsen food insecurity across developing economies, as higher energy and transport costs ripple through global commodity markets. In its latest Commodity Markets Outlook, the lender noted global commodity prices are projected to rise by 16 per cent in 2026, marking the first annual increase since 2022. The institution said the outlook reflects continued supply disruptions in the Middle East, particularly across energy and fertiliser markets, with risks remaining heavily tilted to the upside. The report said Brent crude prices experienced unprecedented volatility during the first quarter of 2026, driven by disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on regional energy infrastructure. Brent rose from about $72 a barrel at the end of February to as high as $118 a barrel by the end of March, recording the largest monthly increase on record. Prices later eased following a ceasefire announcement and temporary sanctions relief for exports from Iran, Russia and Venezuela, alongside the release of emergency reserves by the International Energy Agency.

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